Dynamics of Peru’s Position in the Global Copper Ore Trade: A Social Network Analysis

Abstract

This thesis delves into Peru’s dynamic role within the global copper ore trade network amidst escalating demand and concentrated production. It navigates Peru’s evolving export position, examines its response to shifting export values and trade partners, and evaluates its influence on the global copper ore trade network for over a decade. Through Social Network Analysis (SNA), this study reveals Peru’s remarkable resilience as a leading copper ore exporter from 2013 to 2022, as illustrated by its stable normalised out-degree and high betweenness centrality, which affirms its strategic role as an intermediary and influencer in trade flows. The findings underscore Peru’s growing interconnectedness with its trade partners, bolstered by an increasing clustering coefficient, indicating robust and direct trade relationships. However, the rise of competitors, specifically Indonesia and Brazil, introduces new challenges and requires strategic adjustment. The research concludes that Peru’s significant role in the global copper ore network is characterised by its adept navigation of market fluctuations and competitive pressures. This study provides critical insights into the dynamics of the copper ore trade market for policymakers, economists, and industry stakeholders. This enriches our understanding of Peru’s key position in the global copper industry, its contributions to energy transition, and its strategic international interactions. The strategic implications highlight the necessity for diversification, strengthening diplomatic relations, and implementing risk mitigation strategies to preserve and augment Peru’s status as a preeminent copper exporter. These insights and recommendations aim to guide sustainable resource management and foster resilient international trade relations in a rapidly evolving global market.

Esta tesis examina el papel de Perú en la red global de comercio de mineral de cobre desde 2013 hasta 2022, destacando su importancia estratégica ante una demanda creciente y una producción altamente centralizada. A través del análisis de redes sociales, se revela la estabilidad y la influencia de Perú como exportador líder, caracterizado por un alto grado de intermediación y un coeficiente de agrupamiento creciente, indicando relaciones comerciales sólidas y directas. Sin embargo, la emergencia de nuevos competidores como Indonesia y Brasil presenta desafíos significativos que requieren adaptaciones estratégicas. La tesis subraya cómo Perú ha navegado por fluctuaciones del mercado y presiones competitivas para mantener su posición preeminente. Los hallazgos proporcionan insights valiosos para políticas, sugiriendo la necesidad de diversificar mercados, fortalecer relaciones diplomáticas y desarrollar estrategias de mitigación de riesgos. Este estudio no solo enriquece la comprensión del contexto global del cobre, sino también orienta hacia la gestión sostenible de recursos y la promoción de relaciones comerciales resilientes, fundamentales para la transición energética conforme a los objetivos del Acuerdo de París.