Citas bibligráficas
Arias, A., (2019). Método probabilístico para calcular la energía eléctrica generada en parques eólicos aplicando el Value at the Risk [Tesis, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería]. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/21789
Arias, A., Método probabilístico para calcular la energía eléctrica generada en parques eólicos aplicando el Value at the Risk [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/21789
@misc{renati/711458,
title = "Método probabilístico para calcular la energía eléctrica generada en parques eólicos aplicando el Value at the Risk",
author = "Arias Antaurco, Andy Harold",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería",
year = "2019"
}
In the present thesis a method of calculation is developed that allows to evaluate from the probabilistic point of view the generation of electrical energy in the wind farms. The proposed model is based in the analysis of value at risk commonly known as VaR (Value at the Risk) applied in this case to the measurement of the risk of energy supply in wind farms. In this way, a methodology is proposed that uses the stochastic characteristics of the wind speed, the information of the wind turbines and the risk analysis, considering that the main risk in projects of this nature is associated to the probability of materializing the flows of projected income (which depend mainly on the annual energy produced). The wind data used were recorded with a frequency of 1 hour for 11 years (01/01/2000 - 12/31/2010) and the simulations for the estimation of energy were made using the Monte Carlo method. The result of the proposed method was compared with the energy offered and generated annually in 03 wind farms in Peru, obtaining satisfactory results.
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