Citas bibligráficas
Espinoza, D., Vilchez, L. (2011). Evaluación económica y análisis de decisiones ante riesgos de inundación en los proyectos de inversión pública - Satipo 2008 [Tesis, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería]. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/2672
Espinoza, D., Vilchez, L. Evaluación económica y análisis de decisiones ante riesgos de inundación en los proyectos de inversión pública - Satipo 2008 [Tesis]. : Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/2672
@mastersthesis{renati/705985,
title = "Evaluación económica y análisis de decisiones ante riesgos de inundación en los proyectos de inversión pública - Satipo 2008",
author = "Vilchez Casas, Ludy Rossana",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería",
year = "2011"
}
This Master Thesis has been based on Education Project Pre-Feasibility level “Construction of Infrastructure in the Integrated Educational Institution “Divino Niño Jesús“ Satipo Province - Junín“ (2008), which joined the aspects of disaster risk, given that the school is exposed to the danger of flooding by the River Satipo, during the period of greatest flow. The objective is to achieve the effectiveness to face the risks of flooding in public investment projects in Satipo, reducing the uncertainty in the infrastructure activities. It was used the methodology of decision analysis in four phases: structure, deterministic analysis, probabilistic analysis and interpretation of results. Relevant risk factors that explain 70.1% of Social VAN variations are: avoided costs for damage to other infrastructure, to housing and trade, initial investment and flood frequency (years). The profiles of risk - return let us to determine the expected Social VANS of the optimal strategy in S/. 11,732,506 given an uncertain environment with a standard deviation S/. 4,517,309. Therefore, the decision maker solves the problem of allocating scarce economic resources among alternative uses. The allocation of public investment has been enriched by insights about the profitability and sustainability over time, with great application in other sectors of the economy. Key words: Disaster Risk, Decision Analysis, Decision Trees
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