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Barreto, D., (2020). Uncertainty quantification in structural responses of offshore monopile wind turbines [Tesis, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería]. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/22175
Barreto, D., Uncertainty quantification in structural responses of offshore monopile wind turbines [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/22175
@phdthesis{renati/267273,
title = "Uncertainty quantification in structural responses of offshore monopile wind turbines",
author = "Barreto Lara, David",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería",
year = "2020"
}
Título: Uncertainty quantification in structural responses of offshore monopile wind turbines
Autor(es): Barreto Lara, David
Asesor(es): Ortega Malca, Arturo Jesús
Palabras clave: Energía eólica; Tecnología offshore; Confiabilidad estructural; Cuantificación de incertidumbre
Campo OCDE: http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.03.02
Fecha de publicación: 2020
Institución: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería
Resumen: A nivel mundial existe un gran interés en la transición hacia fuentes de energías renovables. Esto es motivado por diversos factores como por ejemplo el calentamiento global, la inestabilidad de los precios del petróleo, la diversificación de la matriz energética, entre otros. En este escenario, la energía eólica juega un papel importante debido a su prometedor desempeño en comparación con las plantas de energía convencionales. Asimismo, existe un interés relativamente reciente en la explotación de los recursos eólicos en las zonas offshore. Aunque el costo de la generación de electricidad a partir de este tipo de energía ha ido disminuyendo gradualmente, en algunos casos sigue siendo comercialmente no competitivo con respecto a otras fuentes de energía.
Uno de los problemas relacionados con los altos costos de la energía eólica es la presencia de incertidumbres que afectan al proceso de diseño. Esto lleva a un exceso de conservadurismo, altos factores de seguridad y exceso de material en los diseños. Por lo tanto, la comprensión del impacto que estas incertidumbres pueden tener en las cargas/respuestas que rigen el diseño de las turbinas eólicas marítimas es crucial. Los proyectos de energía eólica offshore se basan principalmente en simulaciones por computadora que se alimentan de datos de campo. Sin embargo, estos modelos numéricos no son completamente ajustados a la realidad y los datos fiables no siempre están disponibles.
En la industria offshore, las condiciones ambientales, que están representadas por un gran número de parámetros, son aspectos muy importantes a tener en cuenta. Mientras que algunas de ellas se tratan como valores estocásticos, otras se consideran determinísticas y, por lo tanto, la existencia de incertidumbres en sus valores medidos/estimados es inevitable. Por otra parte, los modelos matemáticos que representan los fenómenos físicos son a menudo simplificados con el fin de atenuar los altos costos computacionales. Una situación que al mismo tiempo introduce nuevas fuentes de incertidumbre. Finalmente, el propio tratamiento estadístico de las condiciones estocásticas en el diseño estructural genera su correspondiente nivel de incertidumbre con respecto a las inferencias realizadas a partir de los datos de entrada.
En la presente investigación se exploran los efectos de los tres principales tipos de incertidumbre considerados en el ámbito del análisis de la confiabilidad de los sistemas estructurales: física, estadística y de modelo. Se estudian los efectos de la incertidumbre en los parámetros de las olas, la incertidumbre en el coeficiente de cizallamiento, la influencia de la duración de la simulación y los efectos de la flexibilidad del suelo en las respuestas dinámicas de una turbina eólica offshore monopilar.
Los resultados muestran que las respuestas dinámicas extremas en la base del monopilar están influenciadas por las variaciones de los parámetros de la ola y pueden modelarse mediante relaciones lineales y cuadráticas. También se descubrió que las respuestas extremas a largo plazo tienen baja sensibilidad a la incertidumbre del cizallamiento del viento. Por último, se observó que la duración de las simulaciones afecta moderadamente a las cargas extremas a largo plazo. También se encontró que la flexibilidad del suelo tiene un impacto limitado en las respuestas dinámicas.
Worldwide there is a high interest in the transition to renewable energy sources. It is motivated by diverse concerns such as global warming, oil price volatility, diversification of the energy matrix, among others. In this scenario, wind energy plays an important role due to its promising performance compared to conventional power plants. There is also a relatively recent interest in exploiting wind resources in offshore areas. Although the cost of electricity generation from this type of energy has been gradually decreasing, in some cases it remains commercially uncompetitive concerning other energy sources. One of the problems related to the high costs of wind energy is the presence of uncertainties that affect the design process. This leads to over-conservatism, high safety factors and excess of material in the designs. Therefore, the understanding of the impact that these uncertainties can have on the loads/responses that govern the design of offshore wind turbines is crucial. Offshore wind energy projects are mainly based on computer simulations that are fed by field data. However, the numerical models are not completely accurate and reliable data is not always available. In the offshore industry, the environmental conditions, which are represented by a large number of parameters, are very important aspects to take into account. Whereas some of them are treated as stochastic values, some others are considered deterministic, and therefore the existence of uncertainties in their measured/estimated values is inevitable. On the other hand, mathematical models representing physical phenomena are often simplified to mitigate high computational costs. A situation that, at the same time, introduces new sources of uncertainty. Finally, the own statistical treatment of the stochastic conditions in the structural design generates its corresponding level of uncertainty due to the inferences made from the input data. The present research explores the effects of the three main types of uncertainty considered in the field of reliability analysis of structural systems: physical, statistical and model. The effects of uncertainty in the wave parameters, uncertainty in the shear coefficient, the influence of the simulation length, and effects of soil flexibility on the dynamic responses of a monopile offshore wind turbine are investigated. The results show that the extreme dynamic responses at the base of the monopile are affected by variations in the wave parameters and they can be modelled by linear and quadratic relationships. It was also found that long-term extreme responses have low sensitivity to wind shear uncertainty. Finally, it was observed that the simulation length moderately affects long-term extreme loads. Also, it was found that soil flexibility has limited impact on the dynamic responses.
Worldwide there is a high interest in the transition to renewable energy sources. It is motivated by diverse concerns such as global warming, oil price volatility, diversification of the energy matrix, among others. In this scenario, wind energy plays an important role due to its promising performance compared to conventional power plants. There is also a relatively recent interest in exploiting wind resources in offshore areas. Although the cost of electricity generation from this type of energy has been gradually decreasing, in some cases it remains commercially uncompetitive concerning other energy sources. One of the problems related to the high costs of wind energy is the presence of uncertainties that affect the design process. This leads to over-conservatism, high safety factors and excess of material in the designs. Therefore, the understanding of the impact that these uncertainties can have on the loads/responses that govern the design of offshore wind turbines is crucial. Offshore wind energy projects are mainly based on computer simulations that are fed by field data. However, the numerical models are not completely accurate and reliable data is not always available. In the offshore industry, the environmental conditions, which are represented by a large number of parameters, are very important aspects to take into account. Whereas some of them are treated as stochastic values, some others are considered deterministic, and therefore the existence of uncertainties in their measured/estimated values is inevitable. On the other hand, mathematical models representing physical phenomena are often simplified to mitigate high computational costs. A situation that, at the same time, introduces new sources of uncertainty. Finally, the own statistical treatment of the stochastic conditions in the structural design generates its corresponding level of uncertainty due to the inferences made from the input data. The present research explores the effects of the three main types of uncertainty considered in the field of reliability analysis of structural systems: physical, statistical and model. The effects of uncertainty in the wave parameters, uncertainty in the shear coefficient, the influence of the simulation length, and effects of soil flexibility on the dynamic responses of a monopile offshore wind turbine are investigated. The results show that the extreme dynamic responses at the base of the monopile are affected by variations in the wave parameters and they can be modelled by linear and quadratic relationships. It was also found that long-term extreme responses have low sensitivity to wind shear uncertainty. Finally, it was observed that the simulation length moderately affects long-term extreme loads. Also, it was found that soil flexibility has limited impact on the dynamic responses.
Enlace al repositorio: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/22175
Disciplina académico-profesional: Doctorado en Ciencias con Mención en Energética
Institución que otorga el grado o título: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería. Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica. Unidad de Posgrado
Grado o título: Doctor en Ciencias con Mención en Energética
Jurado: Arrieta Freyre, Javier Eduardo; Prada Vega, Solón Pedro Luis; Karimirad, Madjid; Celis Pérez, César; Heredia Muñoz, Manuel Antonio
Fecha de registro: 30-may-2022
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