Citas bibligráficas
Córdova, D., (2015). Análisis de la precipitación futura en la cuenca Chancay - Huaral mediante el modelo GCM-MRI [Tesis, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/2174
Córdova, D., Análisis de la precipitación futura en la cuenca Chancay - Huaral mediante el modelo GCM-MRI [Tesis]. : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2015. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/2174
@misc{renati/243448,
title = "Análisis de la precipitación futura en la cuenca Chancay - Huaral mediante el modelo GCM-MRI",
author = "Córdova Ahuanari, Diana Beatriz",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2015"
}
In the present study we have developed an analysis of precipitation in the basin Chancay Huaral at the present time (1980-1999) and future (2020-2039 and 2080-2099) in global circulation model of high resolution MRI - the AGCM two versions, to evaluate projections and precipitation anomalies that could affect agriculture in the basin. For this, the downscaling model was performed MRI - AGCM to the rainfall station with two statistical methods, the first is the parametric bias correction (PBC) and the second is the cumulative distribution function (CDF). Rainfall stations were characterized in four areas, with the help of the Regional Vector. The estimated model was compared MRI precipitation - AGCM and precipitation gauges with the Pearson correlation coefficient, to timely and space to a monthly and seasonal significance level of five percent level scale, resulting in an optimal positive correlation significant in the four products Model MRI - AGCM. Also, precipitation anomalies spatially projected basin, causing an increase in the months of January to March and a deficit in the months from July to December; weather and drought indexes were evaluated getting similar results, in wet and dry periods. Also, it dominates the entire basin the size of the light drought more frequently 50% for projections of rainfall model projected MRI - AGCM agreeing years. Indeed, projections of rainfall in the basin may prevent some flooding increased precipitation and drought control possible; improving the efficiency of water resources in the basin by their intake structures and building reservoirs.
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