Citas bibligráficas
Tejada, R., (2025). Efecto de la Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real en el Consumo Privado del Perú [Trabajo de investigación, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)]. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684024
Tejada, R., Efecto de la Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real en el Consumo Privado del Perú [Trabajo de investigación]. PE: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC); 2025. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684024
@misc{renati/1300966,
title = "Efecto de la Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real en el Consumo Privado del Perú",
author = "Tejada Marina, Roberto Ayrton",
publisher = "Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)",
year = "2025"
}
This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate volatility on private consumption in Peru, covering the period from 1996 to 2023 with a quarterly frequency database. Applying a VAR model, we examine how real exchange rate volatility, a crucial indicator in small and open economies such as Peru, affects household consumption decisions. Variables such as private consumption, GDP, interest rate, inflation and real exchange rate are extracted from the BCRP, while the real exchange rate volatility variable is generated from the real exchange rate and using a GARCH (1,1) approach. The main hypothesis is that an increase in real exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on private consumption. Preliminary findings suggest that real exchange rate volatility is a significant factor that could negatively influence private consumption, especially in a context of global and local economic uncertainty. The results seek to contribute to the scarce existing literature on the Peruvian case and provide recommendations for the formulation of economic policies that promote economic growth.
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