Citas bibligráficas
Bahamonde, A., Gonzalez, M. (2023). Efecto del precio del petróleo en el crecimiento económico [Trabajo de suficiencia profesional, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)]. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/671689
Bahamonde, A., Gonzalez, M. Efecto del precio del petróleo en el crecimiento económico [Trabajo de suficiencia profesional]. PE: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC); 2023. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/671689
@misc{renati/1296981,
title = "Efecto del precio del petróleo en el crecimiento económico",
author = "Gonzalez Gagliuffi, Melisa Joana",
publisher = "Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)",
year = "2023"
}
The following research pretends to assess the impact of changes in the real price of oil on economic growth of a net importer country like Peru, considering for this study the period between 1995 and 2022. In many opportunities, oil shocks have been pointed out as explanatory variables for GDP behavior, and even as predictors of recessions. Literature presents a variety of conclusions, both for industrialized and developing countries. The analysis usually mentions particularities of each country that could explain the results diversity, such as the country's internal production structure, its integration to the world financial market or its trade openness. Given the last international events, which aside of being grievous remind us of the risks linked to energy dependency, it appears to be convenient exploring the impact that changes in energy sources like crude has on GDP. It is important to highlight that in 2022 crude oil registered the highest level of imports of all products in Peru. This paper concludes that under a VAR lineal model assumption, the impact of changes in real oil prices on economic growth is significant in the short run for an emerging net importer nation like Peru. Likewise, we observe that the response of GDP to a one deviation Cholesky shock is small and disappears within a year. Additionally, using a non-linear VAR model, we examine the asymmetric effect of the change in the price of oil and find that positive changes in real oil price have a smaller effect on Peruvian GDP than negative changes of the same magnitude have. This finding is noticeable given that most non-linear analysis for some other countries suggest that the impact of an increase in price tends to be larger than a decrease. Given these results, we can confirm the relative efficiency of the policies executed in Peru regarding oil price volatility management, which we advise to review periodically and upfront of structural changes. In addition, we recommend taking this opportunity to ensure a timely and effective transition towards an energy matrix with less carbon dioxide emissions and less dependent on nonrenewable resources. For this purpose, it will be important to explore and introduce policies providing incentives for ‘green’ energy generation technologies development.
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