Citas bibligráficas
Herrera, Y., (2023). Impacto del cambio climático en la disponibilidad hídrica superficial de la subcuenca Alto Huarmey [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/6314
Herrera, Y., Impacto del cambio climático en la disponibilidad hídrica superficial de la subcuenca Alto Huarmey []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2023. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/6314
@misc{renati/1115317,
title = "Impacto del cambio climático en la disponibilidad hídrica superficial de la subcuenca Alto Huarmey",
author = "Herrera Santivañez, Yomira Milagros",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2023"
}
This study focused on evaluating the impact of climate change on the surface water availability of the Upper Huarmey sub-basin. An existing scenario for the period 1984-2014 was considered, using observed data for precipitation and average temperature, along with two future scenarios: I (2015 to 2045) and II (2046 to 2076), which utilized data from the variables of precipitation and temperature from global climate models (GCM). Subsequently, the technique of statistical regionalization was applied to adjust and improve the climatic data from the GCM global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to the local scale of the study area. It was found that the statistical adjustment coefficients for the NESM3 model were the most suitable for representing precipitation, while the MIROC6 model was the best for representing the average temperature. Then, monthly flows were calculated using the GR2M model for the current scenario and statistically adjusted with information from the "Puente Huamba" hydrometric station. For future scenarios I and II, flows were estimated based on NESM3 precipitation information and MIROC6 temperature information. Finally, when evaluating the impact of climate change on the water availability in the Upper Huarmey sub-basin, an increasing trend in surface water availability was observed in future scenarios I and II compared to the current scenario, especially in the month of March. These findings are valuable for water resource planning and management in the region, although it is important to note that climate models have limitations and assumptions that must be considered in interpreting the results.
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