Citas bibligráficas
Zapata, O., (2023). Modelo de serie de tiempo para la producción mensual de leche en el Perú, periodo enero 2015 – abril 2023 [Universidad Nacional de Trujillo]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14414/19505
Zapata, O., Modelo de serie de tiempo para la producción mensual de leche en el Perú, periodo enero 2015 – abril 2023 []. PE: Universidad Nacional de Trujillo; 2023. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14414/19505
@misc{renati/1047878,
title = "Modelo de serie de tiempo para la producción mensual de leche en el Perú, periodo enero 2015 – abril 2023",
author = "Zapata Villegas, Oscar Martin",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Trujillo",
year = "2023"
}
ABSTRACT In this descriptive and longitudinal research, the main objective was to determine the appropriate time series model for monthly milk production in Peru, period January 2015 - April 2023, using the data obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru. (BCRP), for this the Box Jenkins methodology (Identification, estimation, adequacy test and forecast) and the Eviews 12 program were used. The series was divided into two parts, the first was used for the estimation of the model which was from January 2015 – October 2022 and the second from November 2022 – April 2023 which was used for the forecast. Finally, it was concluded that the model that best explained the behavior of milk production in Peru, period January 2015 - April 2023 was a SARIMA ((AR(1) MA(1) SAR(12) SMA(12)) without intercept, whose equations are ∆𝑌̂𝑡 = 0.515𝑦𝑡−1 − 0.917𝜀𝑡−1 + 0.988𝑦𝑡−12 − 0.488𝜀𝑡−12, which had a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = 4.365, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) = 21.210, the absolute mean of the percentage of error (PEMA) = 2.3% and the Mean Percentage of Error (PME) = -2.3% with respect to the original values. Once the adequacy of the model was tested, the monthly milk production in Peru was forecast from May to December 2023
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