Bibliographic citations
Rivera, M., (2018). Teleconexiones-enso para el pronóstico estacional de lluvias y el rendimiento del cultivo de papa en el Departamento de Junín [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/3743
Rivera, M., Teleconexiones-enso para el pronóstico estacional de lluvias y el rendimiento del cultivo de papa en el Departamento de Junín []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/3743
@misc{sunedu/3017067,
title = "Teleconexiones-enso para el pronóstico estacional de lluvias y el rendimiento del cultivo de papa en el Departamento de Junín",
author = "Rivera Ccaccachahua, Marisela",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2018"
}
This thesis evaluates the predictive potencial of two ENSO indices (ONI and ICEN) on precipitation and potato yields residual. The studied patterns of atmospheric circulation in the high lands of Junín were the Bolivian High and Northeastern Vaguada of Brazil in the upper atmosphere, where precipitations are conditioned by coupled with the moisture transported the Amazon basin on the surface define a rainy summer. Then, climatic variability was analyzed. Most of the precipitation falls during October and March (75 – 85 percent of the annual rainfall amount), with peaks in February. Four homogeneous zones were obtained in both quarters (September-November and January-March), where vector C shows more area to potato crop than others. About the effects of climatic, known as teleconnections, on precipitacion responses statistically significant, mainly with the ONI index in October, November, January and February. For rainfall forecasts, they can be performed up to two months previously (Lag2) for October, January and February, weakening the climatic signal of the ONI and ICEN indexes from Lag 3. In addition, with the ONI index, precipitation is under normal in October to Lag 0 and Lag 2 during the positive phase, and rains above normal in January and February to Lag 1 during the negative phase. To ENSO effects phases on district level potato yield residual, weren’t in the majority statistically significant with both indices, however, four districts have strongest effects with yields higher (lower) during positive (negative) phase with the ONI; in the case of the ICEN, only three districts have a statistically significant difference whose behavior of the yields residual are similar to the ONI for both phases.
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