Citas bibligráficas
Barreto, C., (2016). Comportamiento de la alta de Bolivia hacia finales del siglo XXI bajo el escenario de emisión RCP8.5 [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/3109
Barreto, C., Comportamiento de la alta de Bolivia hacia finales del siglo XXI bajo el escenario de emisión RCP8.5 []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2016. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/3109
@misc{sunedu/3013891,
title = "Comportamiento de la alta de Bolivia hacia finales del siglo XXI bajo el escenario de emisión RCP8.5",
author = "Barreto Schuler, Christian Wilder",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2016"
}
In the present research were identified the changes over the atmospheric system Bolivian High (BH) by the end of the twenty first century (2071-2095) under the emissions scenario rcp8.5 from the IPCC. First of all, was done a quantitative validation of forty Global Circulation Models from the CMIP5 project; this, with the aim to detect which of them were better in the representation of the current climate (1981-2005) over South America. The systems evaluated in this phase were the South East Pacific High, the Amazonian Low and the BH, the Reanalysis ERA-Interim (REI) was used for the comparisons. The result of the validation was the choice of the models: HadGEM2-ES and ACCESS1-0. Addtionally, the analysis of the atmosphere patterns associated with the BH, in the period 1981-2005, was done, finding that both models overestimate the wind’s velocity at 200hPa, mostly over the tropical área of South America; likewise, the representation of a BH with a horizontal inclination was founded too (from the northwest to the southeast). These patterns described, modify the normal distribution of the horizontal divergence at 200hPa, mainly over the peruvian Andes and the Amazon. Finally, from the analysis of the future changes considering the climate projections of both models selected, was posible to determinate that, by the end of the twenty first century, during the summer seasons, there will be: A weaknening of the longitudinal thermal gradient, between the warm core of the BH (at ≈300hPa) and the surrounding; As well as, a BH with weaker winds over his northern section, and stronger over his southern section; with a zonal intensification; and a vertical displacement to a lower pressure levels (<200hPa). Considering these future changes over the BH, it is posible to estimate less precipitation over the southern highlands of Peru, northern of Chile, Southwestern of Bolivia, and the Amazon
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