Bibliographic citations
Castro, A., (2019). Determinación de modelos de estimación de temperaturas mínimas con fines de pronóstico de heladas en la región Ancash [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/4074
Castro, A., Determinación de modelos de estimación de temperaturas mínimas con fines de pronóstico de heladas en la región Ancash []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/4074
@misc{sunedu/3012579,
title = "Determinación de modelos de estimación de temperaturas mínimas con fines de pronóstico de heladas en la región Ancash",
author = "Castro Narciso, Anabel Yovana",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2019"
}
In this research has determined empirical models of minimum temperatures forecasts of six station meteorology in Ancash region, which are: Chiquian, Malvas, Cabana, Santiago de Atunes de Mayolo, Buena Vista y Huarmey; This result was obtained by comparing the minimum temperatures recorded and forecasted (BRAMS model) at each station point during the 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 agricultural campaign. Subsequently implemented statistical techniques, such as Pearson's linear correlation with a degree of significance of 90 and 95 percent, simple linear regression to obtain the empirical prediction equations and to accept the constants A ≠ B ≠ 0 Fisher's test was performed at a confidence level of 95 percent. Validation of the empirical forecasting equations was performed by analyzing the observed minimum temperature data and the minimum temperatures forecasted by the empirical equations during the 2016/2017 agricultural campaign, using the mean error (ME or BIAS) and the mean square error (RMSE), coming to accept the equations of the different forecast times (T2, T3, T4 and T5) of the following stations: Malvas was significant in the 4 forecast times (T2, T3, T4 and T5); also the Chamana and Chiquian stations were significant at time 2 (T2), while Santiago Atunes de Mayolo at time 2 and 3 (T2, T3), Huarmey at Time 2 and 5 and Buena Vista at time 4 and 5. These empirical models, were used in the prediction of minimum temperatures and thus to be able to evaluate the critical temperatures of the potato and corn crops. In addition to this, economic valuation was made of the forecast of minimum temperatures below 5.8 ° C (in the case of potatoes) and below 7.6 ° C (for starchy corn) using the " Cost-Loss " model; for this, the yield (Kg / ha) of the crop was related by means of a multiple linear regression with the variables of temperature, precipitation and agronomic frosts; this relationship was only significant at 97 percent for the potato crop (under the occurrence of more than 50 agronomic frosts) but not for the starchy corn; that is why we only continued with the evaluation for the potato crop, finding a Playoff table (decision making) that tells us the following: if a farmer does not take any preventive action before the occurrence of more than 50 agronomic frosts, you will lose 1550 kg for each hectare you sow; in case preventive actions are taken, it will lose on average 1033.6 kilograms per hectare. Once the information in the decision table was obtained, the 2016/2017 agricultural campaign was evaluated, finding that the empirical forecast equation of the Malvas station (representative station for the Ancash region), forecast 9 episodes of minimum temperatures below 5.3 °C, which were insufficient to economically assess the forecast during that campaign. It is worth mentioning that year 2017 we were under a scenario of the Coastal Child, so the night temperatures were high.
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