Bibliographic citations
Asencios, J., Ato, M. (2015). Propuesta Metodológica para la Evaluación Semicuantitativa de Riesgo de Desastres con fines de Ordenamiento Territorial, en el Distrito de San Marcos, Provincia de Huari, Departamento de Ancash [Tesis, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12672/4400
Asencios, J., Ato, M. Propuesta Metodológica para la Evaluación Semicuantitativa de Riesgo de Desastres con fines de Ordenamiento Territorial, en el Distrito de San Marcos, Provincia de Huari, Departamento de Ancash [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; 2015. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12672/4400
@misc{sunedu/2865948,
title = "Propuesta Metodológica para la Evaluación Semicuantitativa de Riesgo de Desastres con fines de Ordenamiento Territorial, en el Distrito de San Marcos, Provincia de Huari, Departamento de Ancash",
author = "Ato Vértiz, María Teresa",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos",
year = "2015"
}
--- The purpose of this thesis is to develop a useful semi-quantitative method for risk assessment taking into consideration the dimension of the Land Management; this assessment will provide the information needed to outline prevention proposals and reduction measures for the impact of natural disasters on the District of San Marcos. The scope of the study covers the District of San Marcos entirely, located in the mountain ranges of Peru, specifically in the Conchucos Valley (locally called Callejón de Conchucos), Province of Huari, Department of Ancash. This district has a surface area of 556.75 Km2 and a population of 15136 inhabitants. The subject of analysis is the larger villages and the map scale used for this project is 1/25000. The study area is exposed to natural phenomena events, such as floodings, mass wasting, droughts and frosts. In addition, it currently has a disproportionate population growth, the population has poor knowledge on how to prevent and reduce risks. The local government is not proper basic documentation for future plans of prevention and reduction of disaster risks. All of these factors have led to the development and implementation of the semi-quantitative method for risk assessment which will be useful for the elaboration of specific plans regarding risks. The type of research used is a descriptive/correlational research. A semi-quantitative and variable analysis procedure was employed and a non-experimental/cross-sectional design was developed. The research was developed in three stages: a First Office Work (gathering and preliminary organization of information), Field Work (exploring the study area and conducting surveys), and a Second Office Work (Mapping, GIS Data Modeling and Elaboration of Proposals). During the stage of Mapping and GIS Data Modeling, the information gathered is prepared and a data base is designed. Indicators and variables for the submodels of multiple dangers and vulnerabilities were conceptualized; these submodels were part of the final Semi-quantitative Risk Model. Then, general aspects of the data modeling are introduced; a semi-quantitative matrix was built to assess indicators, variables and submodels, which are part of the final risk model; moreover, it is determined that the final model to be generated is a descriptive model, where the multiple danger level has been evaluated through heuristic superposition and using multi-criteria matrices that maintain danger levels of interest; the vulnerability model has been constructed with information from the surveys, information that was spatialized among the larger villages (delimited using the Bing Aerial imagery analyzer tool and a Rapideye Satellite Imagery 3A 5m), then the spatial variables were organized by vulnerability levels in intervals of interest according to the Jenks Natural Breaks Classification Method, Also, in this manner, a submodel reflecting the multiple vulnerability levels was obtained. Finally, the submodels of multiple dangers and multiple vulnerabilities are integrated through a superposition based on a multi-criteria matrix in order to preserve the high risks areas, resulting in a Semi-quantitative Risk Model. The Semi-quantitative Risk Model conclude that the areas of high risk represent 3.78% of the district surface, these areas have a significant population density, the people and their livelihood are settled in the riverside which make them vulnerable to mass wasting, floodings and, to a lesser extent, to droughts and frosts. This level includes the larger villages that were studied: Huaripampa Central, Pujun Pampa, Rancas, Gaucho and Challhuayaco; and the adjacent villages: Gotu Puquio and Ayash, approximately 1094 inhabitants being immersed. Among the most significant phenomena in the study area , according to the high level obtained respectively, is first mass movements with 55.07 % , in second place with 38.03 % frost and drought finally to 11.32 % ; which require further attention. With the results of the 3 models generated : Hazard , Vulnerability and Risk ; finally it raises a number of guidelines and actions that are aimed at reducing and preventing the risk of disasters in the district. KEYWORDS: Disaster Risk, Semi-Quantitative Assessment, Heuristic, GIS Modeling, Natural Breaks
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