Bibliographic citations
Freitas, A., García, J., Lino, E., Calderón, L. (2024). Modelo prolab: Ariagro - sistema de cultivo no tradicional para nuestra Amazonía peruana [Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú]. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12404/27184
Freitas, A., García, J., Lino, E., Calderón, L. Modelo prolab: Ariagro - sistema de cultivo no tradicional para nuestra Amazonía peruana []. PE: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú; 2024. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12404/27184
@mastersthesis{renati/529151,
title = "Modelo prolab: Ariagro - sistema de cultivo no tradicional para nuestra Amazonía peruana",
author = "Calderón Rengifo, Luis Enrique",
publisher = "Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú",
year = "2024"
}
From the context, it has been identified that the problem of the farmer in the Loreto region has negative factors that lead to losses in agricultural production, which as the first factor we have: limited spaces of land for crops, the region has a large amount of acidic and nutrient- poor soils, with figures that 62.4% of the soils have the physical and chemical limitations for the optimal development of agriculture. (INEI, 2012). Complementing this is the factor of climate change: The Loreto region is located in the Peruvian Amazon and, therefore, is susceptible to the effects of climate change, such as droughts, floods and other extreme weather events that can affect agricultural production. (INEI, 2012). Given the complexity and relevance of the problem of agriculture with a focus on the limited space of land for cultivation, in 2020, the agricultural sector registered a contraction due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors., Peru's agricultural sector experienced a drop of 7.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. These data reflect the negative effects of the pandemic on agricultural activity and the difficulties faced by farmers. (BCRP, 2023). And as for the GDP data for the month of February 2023, it decreased 0.6%, this is due to lower production oriented to the domestic market, in April, the agricultural industry experienced a decrease of 14.2% due to a reduction in production of Andean crops such as potatoes, barley, peas, broad beans and forage. This situation occurred in a scenario marked by droughts until January and frosts until May 2023, which affected the plantations and decreased collections in the mountainous region. The most affected areas were Puno and Cusco, areas that have an early planting calendar and production peaks between April and June. After defining the problem, a focus was placed on the investigation of the user's profile where the central problem, their main needs and frustrations, their beliefs and desires could be corroborated, which is recorded in the “User Meta Canvas“. Interviews were conducted with 32 farmers from the community of Santa Clara, including men and women who are dedicated to agriculture as their main economic activity. The interviewees range from 35 to 60 years old. ARIAGRO's cost of equity capital, represented as Ke Soles, is 18.84%, while the cost of debt, or Kd Soles, is 11.08%. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project is impressively high, at 243.60%, and the investment recovery time, or payback, is just 0.31 years. The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is 12.22%. The Present Value (VA) of the project is S/ 4'552,798.00 and the initial investment is S/ 400,245.00. After subtracting the PV investment, the Net Present Value (NPV) is S/ 4'152,552.79, which indicates a highly profitable project. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of not reaching the predetermined amount is 7.3%. Thus, it can be deduced that ARIAGRO will reach profitability in the fifth year after carrying out 5,000 simulations. In the analysis presented for the years 2023 to 2027, a sustained increase in the social benefit derived from the reduction of CO2 emissions and the promotion of sustainable practices such as the efficient use of water and energy is observed. For example, in 2023, the non-emission of CO2 in agriculture and the efficient use of water provided benefits of S/ 424.47 soles, a figure that increased to S/ 728.92 soles in 2027. In addition, the generation of employment represented a significant benefit, reaching S/ 63,000 soles in 2026 and 2027 thanks to the creation of 60 jobs annually. On the other hand, a cost associated with the production of aluminum was recorded, which increased from S/ 1,273.39 soles in 2023 to S/ 2,546.78 soles in 2027. However, the social cash flow, which subtracts these costs from the benefits, showed a positive balance and increasing, culminating in a social Net Present Value (NPV) of S/ 219,625.82 soles, evidencing the positive impact and social profitability of the proposed initiatives.
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