Delimitación de áreas críticas mediante el modelamiento de flujo de lodos con el software flo 2D en la quebrada malanche, distrito de Punta Hermosa, Lima-Perú

Abstract

La presente tesis muestra el modelamiento hidrológico e hidráulico de la quebrada Malanche, ubicada en el distrito de Punta Hermosa, con la finalidad de obtener el mapa de amenazas para crear un ambiente de conciencia frente a este fenómeno y generar planes para evitar o mitigar el impacto de este fenómeno.

Se presenta un marco teórico que aborda conceptos relacionados al estudio, la metodología de la investigación y el desarrollo del modelo.

Para el modelo hidrológico, se obtuvo los parámetros principales de la quebrada, fue necesario la adquisición de los datos históricos de precipitación de 24h máxima para elaborar su hidrograma. Asimismo, se usó el software Hyfran para el análisis estadístico de dicha data. El modelo hidrológico fue realizado con el software HEC-HMS 4.4 con ArcGIS 10.5 y su extensión HEC-GeoHMS. Así, se pudo determinar los caudales máximos para periodos de retorno de 25, 50, 100, 200 años.

El modelo hidráulico fue desarrollado con FLO-2D PRO, el cual simula flujo de lodos. Para ello, se necesita al hidrograma calculado, a la topografía digital del terreno, la rugosidad del canal y de la planicie de inundación, hidrogramas sólidos y parámetros reológicos.

De esta manera, FL0-2D nos reporta tirantes y velocidades del flujo de lodo para cada periodo de retorno. Su calibración consistió en verificar que los tirantes del modelo sean muy similares a las marcas de flujo de lodo registradas en campo. A partir de ello, se logró elaborar mapas de amenazas.

Mud flows are natural phenomena with great destructive power, very common in Peru. Affected areas are spaces delimited by a certain break, resulting in the main impacts in the delta. The damage they cause is considerable for their great energy, destroying or razing everything in its path, even demolishing structures of armed concrete. The present thesis shows the hydrological and hydraulic modeling of the Quebrada Malanche, located in the district of Punta Hermosa, developed with the purpose of obtaining the hazard map, which will allow the creation of an environment of awareness to natural phenomena and generate plans for the construction of structures that avoid or mitigate the impact of this phenomenon. A theoretical framework is presented that addresses the basic concepts related to the study of hydrology and hydraulics, the research methodology and the development of each model. For the hydrological model, the characterization of thr Quebrada Malanche was carried out and its main parameters were obtained, as well as the acquisition of historical data on maximum 24-hour rainfall. Hyfran software was also used for statistical analysis of this data. Thus, the hydrological model was made with the HEC-HMS version 4.4 software in collaboration with ArcGIS version 10. 5 and its HEC-GeoHMS extension. Thus, it was possible to determine the maximum flows under the return periods of 25, 50, 100, 200 years. The hydraulic model was developed with FLO-2D PRO software, which simulates non-Newtonian fluid flow. To do this, the input parameters to the hygrogram calculated in the hydrological model, the digital topography of the terrain, estimated values of the roughness of the channel and the floodplain, solid hygrograms and rheological parameters such as viscosity and yieldion effort were taken as input parameters. In this way you get the simulation for each established scenario, so, the FL0-2D program reports straps and speeds of the sludge flow for each return period. The calibration of the numerical model consisted of trying to match the straps of the model with the flow marks registered in the field and by analyzing their topography. From validation and with program outputs, a threat map can be developed to help mitigate the effects of sludge flow in areas surrounding the Malanche Quebrada.