Bibliographic citations
Rojas, A., Arias, F. (2020). Modelos predictivos de muerte o exacerbación en Insuficiencia Cardiaca Aguda: Una revisión sistemática [Tesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)]. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/651927
Rojas, A., Arias, F. Modelos predictivos de muerte o exacerbación en Insuficiencia Cardiaca Aguda: Una revisión sistemática [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC); 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/651927
@misc{renati/390435,
title = "Modelos predictivos de muerte o exacerbación en Insuficiencia Cardiaca Aguda: Una revisión sistemática",
author = "Arias Reyes, Francisco Alejandro",
publisher = "Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)",
year = "2020"
}
1. Introduction and Objectives: There are currently a number of predictive models of outcomes in Acute Heart Failure (AHF); the clinical usefulness and the possible implementation of these are unknown. In this study, we propose to evaluate the performance of the predictive models for AHF. 2. Methodology: A systematic review of the predictive models of adverse outcomes was performed. Therefore, a search was made in 6 bibliographic databases, including all original articles that report prediction models. The PROBAST tool was used to assess the risk of bias in the articles.3. Results: From 2498 initial articles, we took 39 from them. The majority came from Europe (46.1%), 20 of them assess mortality, while 21 demonstrated low risk of bias and good applicability using the PROBAST assessment tool. The male sex was the majority in 69% of articles. The most common morbidity is high blood pressure. All the models were validated, and more than 50% have external validation. Borovac JA et al. it has the highest AUC with 0.907. Fourteen models used the Hosmer Lemeshow calibration model. No article had a net benefit. 4. Conclusion: The studies don’t show an adequate evaluation of performance, since they do not present all the existing measurement statistics; The development of new models with the complete description of performance statistics is necessary to carry out an adequate comparison.
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