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Tafur, Y., (2021). Evaluación del riesgo de inversión extranjera en proyectos de petróleo en el Perú [Tesis, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería]. https://repositorio.uni.edu.pe/handle/20.500.14076/21771
Tafur, Y., Evaluación del riesgo de inversión extranjera en proyectos de petróleo en el Perú [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; 2021. https://repositorio.uni.edu.pe/handle/20.500.14076/21771
@misc{renati/266804,
title = "Evaluación del riesgo de inversión extranjera en proyectos de petróleo en el Perú",
author = "Tafur Mariluz, Yeltsin Ricardo",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería",
year = "2021"
}
Title: Evaluación del riesgo de inversión extranjera en proyectos de petróleo en el Perú
Authors(s): Tafur Mariluz, Yeltsin Ricardo
Advisor(s): Sinchitullo Gómez, Joseph Jean
Keywords: Inversiones extranjeras; Proyectos de inversión; Regímenes fiscales; Recursos naturales; Combustibles fósiles
OCDE field: http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.07.03
Issue Date: 2021
Institution: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería
Abstract: Las políticas ambientales y energéticas introducidas por los países europeos y las corporaciones internacionales para abordar el cambio climático, así como la pandemia mundial de COVID-19, han alterado la perspectiva de la demanda energética futura. Sin embargo, la economía mundial seguirá utilizando como energía primaria al petróleo en las próximas décadas y la mayoría de los países en desarrollo de Sudamérica dependen en gran medida de los combustibles fósiles y una proporción significativa de su matriz energética depende del gas natural y petróleo. Por lo que es importante y necesaria la inversión extranjera directa (IED) dentro del sector petrolero, upstream. Estas inversiones están asociados a riesgos inherentes e incertidumbre debido a que se requieren grandes montos de inversión inicial, largos períodos de recuperación de la inversión, agotabilidad de los recursos de petróleo y gas natural, volatilidad del precio del petróleo, riesgo geológico y riesgo socioambiental.
El continente Sudamericano contiene un importante potencial de recursos energéticos no renovables que necesitan ser explotados para apoyar su crecimiento y desarrollo económico luego de los estragos causados por la crisis del COVID-19. Actualmente existe una escasez de compañías petroleras internacionales (CPI) en esta región debido a la inestabilidad política asociada con un alto índice de corrupción, instituciones de mala calidad y regímenes fiscales sobreestimados. El propósito de esta investigación es realizar una clasificación de países de bajo riesgo a alto riesgo a nivel de Sudamérica; como un lugar favorable para invertir en su sector petrolero, upstream. Este estudio identificó preliminarmente seis categorías de riesgos (riesgo político, riesgo macroeconómico, riesgo técnico, riesgo clima de inversión, riesgo potencial de recursos de petróleo y riesgo limitaciones ambiental); y diez indicadores asociados a estos seis riesgos de inversión extranjera en proyectos de petróleo, upstream. La información de estos indicadores es recopilada para realizar el proceso de jerarquía analítica (AHP) y obtener el índice de ponderación de estos diez indicadores que posteriormente son utilizados en la técnica para el orden de preferencia por similitud con la solución ideal (TOPSIS) con el fin de obtener el ranking de países.
Como resultado se espera jerarquizar los países con inversiones de bajo riesgo y analizar la posición en la que se encuentra el Perú. Esto en base a las reservas probadas de petróleo, sistemas fiscales, entre otros factores, lo cual significará conocer el atractivo del país para atraer inversiones de CPI.
Environmental and energy policies introduced by European countries and international corporations to address climate change, as well as the global COVID-19 pandemic, have altered the outlook for future energy demand. However, the world economy will continue to use oil as its primary energy in the coming decades and most of the developing countries in South America are highly dependent on fossil fuels; furthermore, a significant proportion of their energy matrix depends on gas and oil. Therefore, foreign direct investment (FDI) is important and necessary within the oil sector. These investments are associated with inherent risks and uncertainty because large initial investment amounts are required, long investment payback periods, exhaustibility of oil and gas resources, oil price volatility, geological risk, and socio-environmental risk. The South American continent contains an important potential of non-renewable energy resources that need to be exploited to support its development and economic growth after the havoc caused by the COVID-19 crisis. There is currently a shortage of international oil companies (IOCs) in this region due to political instability associated with a high rate of corruption, poor-quality institutions, and overestimated petroleum fiscal regimes. The purpose of this research is to perform a ranking of countries from low risk to high risk in South America as a favorable place to invest in their upstream oil sector. This study preliminarily identified six risk categories (political risk, macroeconomic risk, technical risk, investment climate risk, oil resource potential risk, and environmental constraint risk); and ten indicators associated with these six risks for foreign oil investments. The information of these indicators is collected to carry out the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to obtain the weighting index of these ten indicators that are later used in the order preference technique by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) in order to get the ranking of countries. As a result, it is expected to rank the countries with low-risk investments and analyze Peru's position. This is based on proven oil reserves, fiscal systems, among other factors, which will mean knowing the attractiveness of the country to attract investment from IOCs.
Environmental and energy policies introduced by European countries and international corporations to address climate change, as well as the global COVID-19 pandemic, have altered the outlook for future energy demand. However, the world economy will continue to use oil as its primary energy in the coming decades and most of the developing countries in South America are highly dependent on fossil fuels; furthermore, a significant proportion of their energy matrix depends on gas and oil. Therefore, foreign direct investment (FDI) is important and necessary within the oil sector. These investments are associated with inherent risks and uncertainty because large initial investment amounts are required, long investment payback periods, exhaustibility of oil and gas resources, oil price volatility, geological risk, and socio-environmental risk. The South American continent contains an important potential of non-renewable energy resources that need to be exploited to support its development and economic growth after the havoc caused by the COVID-19 crisis. There is currently a shortage of international oil companies (IOCs) in this region due to political instability associated with a high rate of corruption, poor-quality institutions, and overestimated petroleum fiscal regimes. The purpose of this research is to perform a ranking of countries from low risk to high risk in South America as a favorable place to invest in their upstream oil sector. This study preliminarily identified six risk categories (political risk, macroeconomic risk, technical risk, investment climate risk, oil resource potential risk, and environmental constraint risk); and ten indicators associated with these six risks for foreign oil investments. The information of these indicators is collected to carry out the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to obtain the weighting index of these ten indicators that are later used in the order preference technique by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) in order to get the ranking of countries. As a result, it is expected to rank the countries with low-risk investments and analyze Peru's position. This is based on proven oil reserves, fiscal systems, among other factors, which will mean knowing the attractiveness of the country to attract investment from IOCs.
Link to repository: https://repositorio.uni.edu.pe/handle/20.500.14076/21771
Discipline: Ingeniería de Petróleo y Gas Natural
Grade or title grantor: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería. Facultad de Ingeniería de Petróleo, Gas Natural y Petroquímica
Grade or title: Ingeniero de Petróleo y Gas Natural
Juror: Argumé Chávez, Edgard Américo; Castro Barbaran, Segundo Wenceslao
Register date: 28-Mar-2022
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License