Bibliographic citations
Guillermo, M., (2023). Pronóstico de demanda y establecimento de inventarios de pedidos por campaña de joyas de fantasía en compañía dedicada a la venta directa [Tesis, Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12815/362
Guillermo, M., Pronóstico de demanda y establecimento de inventarios de pedidos por campaña de joyas de fantasía en compañía dedicada a la venta directa [Tesis]. PE: Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología; 2023. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12815/362
@misc{renati/230554,
title = "Pronóstico de demanda y establecimento de inventarios de pedidos por campaña de joyas de fantasía en compañía dedicada a la venta directa",
author = "Guillermo Quispe, Miguel Angel",
publisher = "Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología",
year = "2023"
}
DML is a company dedicated to direct sales. Ther are in Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and Guatemala. In 2018, Peru obtained 45% of sales of all the countries where they are located, thus placing it in first place in terms of sales. In Peru DML has 7 product lines. For 2018, the 3 lines that had the most sales were: Outerwear, home and jewelry respectively with 40%, 32% and 10%. The first two lines have forecast models per campaign, however, for the jewelry line there is none. Therefore, also for this category, in the same year there were ordering costs of more than 7 million soles and ordering costs of less than 4.4 million soles. DML sells products by campaigns. There are 18 campaigns per year. Most of the products offered per campaign are new and only two percent are resold. In this context, using time series forecasting models is not correct since there is not enough historical information on the demand for the products offered per campaign. On the other hand, machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest could be used. To validate the results of the forecast model, MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is used and it is also validated through hypothesis tests if the mean or median of the difference in the predicted and actual values are equal to or different from zero. Through the implementation of the new forecasting model and the execution of newsvendor, improvements were demonstrated in the costs of over and under-ordering from 2018 to 2019. The total opportunity cost was reduced by 7.9 million soles. The gross profit for 2019 improved by 665,105 soles with a capital investment in the products of 11 million soles less and having for 2019 almost the same number of SKUs offered to the market.
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