Bibliographic citations
Colque, W., (2020). Aplicación de series temporales en el estudio de precipitaciones en la ciudad del Cusco, 1964 – 2018 [Tesis, Universidad Andina del Cusco]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12557/3572
Colque, W., Aplicación de series temporales en el estudio de precipitaciones en la ciudad del Cusco, 1964 – 2018 [Tesis]. : Universidad Andina del Cusco; 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12557/3572
@mastersthesis{renati/17607,
title = "Aplicación de series temporales en el estudio de precipitaciones en la ciudad del Cusco, 1964 – 2018",
author = "Colque Candia, Wilbert",
publisher = "Universidad Andina del Cusco",
year = "2020"
}
The purpose of this research work is to analyze the behavior of rainfall in the city of Cusco based on the years 1964 - 2018, for this study the quantitative approach of descriptive scope and non-experimental design was used. The study population was made up of rainfall between 1964 and 2018, the sample was of the census type, the data collection instrument was validated by two doctors from the Andean University of Cusco whose Cronbach's alpha was 0.741. For the modeling of the series of precipitations in the city of Cusco, the Box-Jenkins methodology was used, in which the stages of description, identification, estimation, validation and forecast were developed. The results of the study show that the series of precipitations does not present a trend or cyclical component, presents seasonality and the irregular component is constant, the model that best fits is the additive model, obtaining as a conclusion, that the series of rainfall in the city of Cusco presents a regular and seasonal behavior. The Augmented Dickey Fuller test indicated a p-value of 0.01 which showed that the series is stationary basic condition to model the series using the Box Jenkins methodology so the best model that fits the series is the ARIMA model (2 , 0, 2) (1, 1, 0) [12].
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.