Bibliographic citations
Ttito, H., (2020). Análisis de los factores que determinan la tasa de actualización del sector eléctrico. El caso de las empresas de distribución eléctrica en el Perú para el periodo 2001-2017 [Tesis, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería]. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/21690
Ttito, H., Análisis de los factores que determinan la tasa de actualización del sector eléctrico. El caso de las empresas de distribución eléctrica en el Perú para el periodo 2001-2017 [Tesis]. PE: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14076/21690
@misc{renati/1750224,
title = "Análisis de los factores que determinan la tasa de actualización del sector eléctrico. El caso de las empresas de distribución eléctrica en el Perú para el periodo 2001-2017",
author = "Ttito Chara, Heber Mauro",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería",
year = "2020"
}
How the Peruvian electricity sector is regulated has a direct impact on the profitability obtained by companies in the sector and, therefore, on the expenditure that families and companies make on their consumption. Hence the need to pay special attention to the electricity sector's discount rate. On the other hand, although there are mechanisms that allow its modification, after a technical study that justifies it, the discount rate has not received modifications for more than twenty-six years. This has been the main reason for trying to demonstrate, in this thesis, the need to estimate the discount rate of the electricity sector considering the results obtained by the companies analyzed in the period from 2001 to 2017, making four temporary cuts that allow observing how the factors influencing the discount rate have varied. Also, carrying out a return and profitability analysis of electricity distribution companies. This need is reinforced by the fact that the sector's supervisory organization intends to carry out this type of study, as can be seen from the background to the investigation. Therefore, a methodology is proposed to estimate the discount rate according to the Peruvian electricity market. Likewise, to evaluate the performance of the electricity distribution companies in Peru by comparing the performance obtained in the study period with the sector's discount rate. Using indicators including risk-free rate, market's return, beta, country risk, inflation, and exchange rate; applying the modified CAPM model will allow us to obtain an estimate of the discount rate and compare it with the current rate in the sector. Additionally, using the information provided by the regulatory agency - Osinergmin, such as the historical financial statements of the companies in the sector, the following indicators were calculated: ROE, ROA and NRV's IRR. This effort to estimate the sector's discount rate and measure the performance of distribution companies will justify the need for a change in the discount rate, based on evidence. Avoiding a possible overestimation of the income of companies in the electricity sector compared to the risks they currently face. The research results in a real discount rate in PEN of 6.94 percent by 2017, lower than 12 percent of the regulated discount rate in effect since 1992. Likewise, the long-term profitability results, measured with the NRV's IRR, of the distribution companies are statistically equivalent for public and private companies, except for 2010, where the profitability of private companies was higher than that of public companies.
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