Bibliographic citations
Velasquez, M., (2024). Análisis del impacto heterogéneo de la deuda pública interna y externa en las reservas internacionales del Perú, 1999-2023 [Trabajo de investigación, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)]. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684069
Velasquez, M., Análisis del impacto heterogéneo de la deuda pública interna y externa en las reservas internacionales del Perú, 1999-2023 [Trabajo de investigación]. PE: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC); 2024. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684069
@misc{renati/1668453,
title = "Análisis del impacto heterogéneo de la deuda pública interna y externa en las reservas internacionales del Perú, 1999-2023",
author = "Velasquez Chirinos, Michael Hams",
publisher = "Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)",
year = "2024"
}
This research analyzes the heterogeneous impact of domestic and external public debt on Peru's net international reserves (NIR) during the period 1999-2023. Using a time series econometric approach, we examine how these key variables have interacted in different macroeconomic contexts. The study reveals three main phases: an initial moderate growth (1999-2008), an acceleration of NIR relative to debt (2009-2019), and a significant increase in debt that exceeded the pace of reserve accumulation (2020-2023). Preliminary results suggest that public debt, especially at high levels, has a negative influence on NIR, while domestic debt shows a stronger and more consistent correlation with reserve accumulation. Factors such as the real exchange rate and the fiscal balance also play a relevant role in these dynamics. This analysis provides a comprehensive perspective by differentiating the impacts of domestic and external debt, highlighting the importance of prudent fiscal management to preserve macroeconomic stability, particularly in emerging economies such as Peru.
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