Bibliographic citations
Carrasco, J., (2021). Caso estudio: análisis comparativo de la sostenibilidad de la deuda entre Perú y Chile en el período 2006-2019, y lecciones aprendidas [Universidad de Lima]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12724/15016
Carrasco, J., Caso estudio: análisis comparativo de la sostenibilidad de la deuda entre Perú y Chile en el período 2006-2019, y lecciones aprendidas []. PE: Universidad de Lima; 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12724/15016
@misc{renati/1442612,
title = "Caso estudio: análisis comparativo de la sostenibilidad de la deuda entre Perú y Chile en el período 2006-2019, y lecciones aprendidas",
author = "Carrasco Guerrero, Jennifer Carolina",
publisher = "Universidad de Lima",
year = "2021"
}
Peru and Chile have been characterized by maintaining low levels of public debt compared to the average for the region; however, we cannot ensure that they meet the debt sustainability criteria. This requires evaluating whether the government of each country complies with the intertemporal budget constraint, that is, whether the current value of future primary results is adequate to the value of the future stock of debt, which would imply that the future surplus could cover the current debt without the need to resort to excessive financing and thus avoid an explosion in the level of debt. There are two approaches that analyze debt sustainability: the ex-ante approach, which takes into account the historical data of the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) to evaluate sustainability, and the ex-ante approach, which seeks to establish economic policy measures that the government must attend so that the debt in the future is sustainable. The main objective of this research is to verify the sustainability of public debt in Peru and Chile ex post, using econometric techniques, for this a time series analysis and the Engle and Granger cointegration methodology were applied, where it was applied unit root and cointegration tests with the presence of breaks, during the period 2006-2019. The results show that the public debt in Peru and Chile is sustainable in the long term, since the income and expenses series, as well as the primary result and public debt as a percentage of GDP, co-integrate, which confirms that the series follow a pattern of balance.
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