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Title: Predicting the Distribution of an Increasingly Vulnerable Ecosystem : The Past, Present, and Future of the Polylepis Woodlands
Other Titles: Predecir la distribución de un ecosistema cada vez más vulnerable : el pasado, el presente y el futuro de los bosques de Polylepis
Advisor(s): Rundel, Philip W.
OCDE field: http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.06.10
Issue Date: 2009
Institution: University of California, Los Angeles
Abstract: Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo predecir la distribución actual de especies y bosques de Polylepis, la distribución durante el Último Máximo Glacial (LGM) y los cambios en la distribución de especies resultantes del doble de CO2 atmosférico. La distribución actual, LGM y futura como resultado del cambio climático se pronosticaron para 21 especies de Polylepis utilizando el algoritmo Maxent sobre América del Sur. Se utilizaron varias capas ambientales, incluidos los datos de detección remota climática, óptica y de microondas, para escenarios climáticos particulares. Se pronostica que la contracción del rango se producirá para la mayoría de las especies, desde el LGM hasta el clima futuro.

This research aimed to predict current Polylepis species and woodland distribution, distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and changes in species distribution resulting from doubled atmospheric CO2. Regions of high Polylepis species richness were characterized, as well as the extent Polylepis woodlands within international and national protected areas throughout the region. Current, LGM, and future distribution as a result of doubled atmospheric CO2 were predicted for 21 species of Polylepis using the Maxent algorithm over South America. Several environmental layers, including climate, optical, and microwave remote sensing data, were used for particular climate scenarios. Range contraction was predicted to occur for most species, from LGM to future climate, as a result of upslope range shifts to smaller land area as a result of increasing annual temperatures. However, the expansion several species ranges were predicted to occur within the Altiplano of Peru and Bolivia as greater land area becomes available. This is contrary to most models of climate change that solely predict contraction in mountain regions. The sites of highest Polylepis species richness did not closely match the current location of protected areas, indicating that the expansion and addition of protected areas are necessary to preserve key areas of high altitude tropical ecosystems. Overall, the management of remaining Polylepis woodlands must take into account the natural distribution of Polylepis species and their response to future climate change to protect this vulnerable ecosystem and the flora, fauna, and human populations that depend on them.
Discipline: Ciencias naturales
Grade or title grantor: University of California, Los Angeles
Grade or title: Doctor en Biología
Register date: 21-Apr-2020

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