Bibliographic citations
De, J., (2024). El impacto de la presión en la cadena de suministro global (GSCPI) sobre la efectividad de la política monetaria en la inflación en Perú (2003-2024) [Trabajo de investigación, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)]. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684022
De, J., El impacto de la presión en la cadena de suministro global (GSCPI) sobre la efectividad de la política monetaria en la inflación en Perú (2003-2024) [Trabajo de investigación]. PE: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC); 2024. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/684022
@misc{renati/1300982,
title = "El impacto de la presión en la cadena de suministro global (GSCPI) sobre la efectividad de la política monetaria en la inflación en Perú (2003-2024)",
author = "De La Cruz Barraza, Jose Eduardo",
publisher = "Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC)",
year = "2024"
}
The effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation in the context of supply shocks is a widely debated topic, particularly in relation to external factors such as global supply chain pressures. This study will examine how the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) influences the effectiveness of the policy interest rate on inflation in Peru during the period 2003-2024. Specifically, it will analyze the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation under regimes of high and low supply chain pressure. To address this question, the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model and Local Projections (LP) will be used to obtain Nonlinear Local Projections (NLLP). Additionally, efforts will be made to instrumentalize Peruvian monetary policy shocks to overcome the problem of endogeneity. This approach will allow for differentiated inflation responses depending on the level of supply chain pressure, with the GSCPI serving as the triggering variable. While theory suggests that monetary policy is more effective in high-pressure contexts, empirical results for emerging economies like Peru indicate that its effectiveness diminishes in such scenarios. Thus, the study offers an innovative perspective on the interaction between global factors and domestic inflation. The findings may provide valuable guidelines for designing a more robust monetary policy, tailored to different levels of pressure in the global supply chain.
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