Bibliographic citations
Guadalupe, K., (2022). Impacto económico por el ingreso del Huanglongbing sobre la cadena productiva directa de la naranja en Junín, prospectiva 2040 [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/5569
Guadalupe, K., Impacto económico por el ingreso del Huanglongbing sobre la cadena productiva directa de la naranja en Junín, prospectiva 2040 []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2022. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/5569
@misc{renati/1116353,
title = "Impacto económico por el ingreso del Huanglongbing sobre la cadena productiva directa de la naranja en Junín, prospectiva 2040",
author = "Guadalupe Muñoz, Katherine Jessy",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2022"
}
Oranges are the most important citrus crop in Peru; moreover, the Department of Junín produces more than 50 percent of the country's oranges. Although Huanglongbing (HLB) is not found in Peru, the disease has been reported on neighboring countries. The objective of the study was to determine the potential economic losses that would occur on the direct orange production chain in the Department of Junín with the arrival of HLB, in alternative and prospective scenarios for the 2023-2040 timeframe, estimating the Benefit/Cost relation of the potential economic losses avoided if a National Phytosanitary Program (NPP) is implemented, thus providing empirical evidence for public policy making. For this purpose, An ARIMA model was used for the trend projection and an epidemiological model for scenarios with HLB; in addition, a Benefit/Cost analysis was carried out to simulate the estimated costs associated with the potential entry of HLB and the impact of the implementation of the NPP. The scenario simulations confirm that the entry of HLB in 2023 into the Department of Junín would have a significant impact on the direct orange production chain and economic losses would be greater each year. Thus, in the scenario where there is no NPP (epidemiological scenario), if no producer takes measures to control and monitor HLB, the estimated economic losses would be S/ 865,724,185.65; while if an NPP is implemented as a public policy, where a certain percentage of producers adopt it, the economic losses for 50% of adopters would be S/. S/ 356,145,193.5
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