Bibliographic citations
Suárez, V., (2023). Modelamiento de los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución del cóndor andino Vultur gryphus en Ayacucho, Perú [Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/6077
Suárez, V., Modelamiento de los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución del cóndor andino Vultur gryphus en Ayacucho, Perú []. PE: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; 2023. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12996/6077
@misc{renati/1114866,
title = "Modelamiento de los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución del cóndor andino Vultur gryphus en Ayacucho, Perú",
author = "Suárez Guillén, Valeria Lucía",
publisher = "Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina",
year = "2023"
}
Climate change is threatening the survival of the Andean condor, a crucial Latin American cultural symbol in ecology, as it prevents the spread of diseases by feeding on carrion. In this regard, the present study aims to model the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Vultur gryphus in the Ayacucho department in Peru. The MaxEnt software was used to model potential distribution and distribution within the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 representative concentration pathways, corresponding to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 2050 and 2070 time horizons. Presence data were obtained from field sampling at the Pampa Galeras Barbara D'Achille National Reserve and in Valle del Sondondo; as well as from individuals of the species in the online database Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Bioclimatic, topographic and soil information was obtained using the Worldclim, Aster GDEM and Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation databases, respectively. The results of the potential distribution were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) test, obtaining a value of 0.915, categorized as good. The potential distribution covers all 11 provinces of Ayacucho with an area of 3,974,129 hectares. According to the effects of climate change for the RCP 2.6 scenario, there will be a severe impact of 1.93% in 2050 and 1.86% by 2070, resulting in unfavorable conditions for the species. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, in 2050 the severe effect will be 2.93%, and in 2070, 2.36%, without mitigation plans in this scenario. Thus, it was concluded that the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the species in Ayacucho would be minimal.
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